Demographic Transition

Demographic transition is a description of the observed long-term trends in fertility and mortality and a model, which attempts to explain them. Demenmy (1972) has summarized it very succinctly "In traditional societies both the fertility and mortality are high and in modern society both the fertility and mortality are high and in modern society both the fertility and mortality is low. In between, there is a demographic transition".
First propnents of demographic theory were Thompson(1929), Davis(1945) and Notestein(1945). Three basic elements of the transiction can be obtained from their writings;

a) It describes the changes that have taken place in fertility and mortality over time.
b) It attempts to construct theoretical causal models to explain the changes that have taken palace
c) Prediction for the changes, that might occur especially in the developing countries in the light of the experience of the developed countries.

Implicit in the classical demographic transition theory is the concept of modernization and development, which brings about changes in mortality and fertilit. Initially declinein mortality takes place and fertility decline is the response to this decline in mortality. Timing of fertility response depends on the levels of development and modernization in the countries concerned.